Zuoan Fashion Ltd (ZA): A No-Brainer For Big Returns

Just took a long position in Zuoan Fashion, Ltd. (NYSE: ZA), opportunities like this come few and far between. Not far from its IPO back 2011, Zuoan Fashion is a design-driven fashion menswear company in China that has taken a beating for no apparent reason.

The No-Brainer Aspect

The reason to me this is a no-brainer investment is because while the company is currently priced at $2.17/share, a quick look at their balance sheet in 2012 shows they have $5.96/share in net cash alone (cash minus debt). Furthermore, if we take all the current assets and pay off all outstanding debt, we're left with $11.79/share. What this means is that if the company liquidated everything tomorrow, that's how much shareholders would receive per share, which makes this a textbook Buffet/Graham/Klarman value play with a 82% margin of safety. Wow...

And the story gets better. The company has no long-term debt and no short interest whatsoever. Below is my analysis of the fundamentals versus the stock price over a 5-year period:

Zuoan Fashion Quality of Earnings Vs. Stock Price (2008-2013)

(click to enlarge)

So what we have is a company who's fundamentals are clearly growing stronger over time while the stock price is diverging to reflect the opposite. No financial shenanigans here either, their financial reports were signed off by Crowe Horwathe, one of the top 10 auditing firms in the United States. Zuoan is essentially like a straight-A student in a bad high school, the top institutions are overlooking her just because she's small and didn't go to Harvard Academy. Their loss...

Not only has their fundamentals improved, but their ability to self fund with cash is getting stronger too (defensive), which means they can weather any storm that may lie ahead because their industry is so competitive.

Industry Recognition

So what about the company? Well, the fashion industry is highly fragmented. While the company has no defensible competitive advantage against competition and its success is dependent upon its ability to recognize and create appealing fashion styles in the years to come, the company has received the #1 spot of fashion designers in China by Apparel Magazine two years in a row now, beating out major competitors such as True Religion, Ralph Lauren, Nike, Urban Outfitters, & lululemon, two times over. From the July 2013 issue of Apparel:

(click to enlarge)

And as apparel magazine mentions, they sponsor and are regularly featured on the Chinese equivalent of Project Runway, "Hello Gorgeous." What better marketing avenue could a fashion company ask for? As China's middle class grows, Zuoan's affordable fashion line stands to benefit which makes this not only a value opportunity, but a growth one as well.

Valuation

Baseline valuation is $9.08/share (assuming a 50% write-off of Accounts Receivable in a liquidation event), but if the trend continues I may hold on until $12-14, making this one a potential 6 or 7-bagger. Estimated time to value realization, 2 years, maybe even sooner.

Maximizing Your Chances of Getting Rich

Per my last post, I want to talk about how "The Ways to Get Rich" list can be used as an effective tool in maximizing your chances of getting rich.

Take a look at the list (see it here) and start to mull the categories over in your mind. Which jump out at you? Which categories do you feel you may have an advantage in? Which categories seem too risky for you? Which do you have the patience for? Which ones do you not even have a chance in? If you come don't come from a rich family, you can cross Inheritance off right away.

The fact of the matter is that everyone is different and some categories may carry more risk depending on your knowledge base in that particular category. Gambling may seem risky to you, but to the MIT Black Jack team, its risk-adjusted. Likewise, stock market speculation may seem too risky if you an unfamiliar with how to analyze a business.

Also, some categories may require significantly more start-up investment. You may know a lot about real estate speculation, but if you can't afford a down payment and monthly mortgage payments, that isn't feasible for you right now.

Also be aware that some seemingly low initial start-up cost categories may contain hidden costs. For example, inventing something costs nothing in the early stage if you can make the product yourself. However, chances are that makeshift MacGyver-like doohickey you just made won't be sold with all that duct tape wrapped around it...or with those exact materials. At some point you're going to need to have either some engineering involved, as well as some production costs.

I had an idea for a beverage that I made in my own home, but after about a month's worth of research, it turned out creating a beverage from creation to distribution will cost about $60,000-$80,000 (that's including formula creation, product design, co-packing, warehousing, and distribution methods).

It goes without saying that the more categories you choose to pursue on the list, the better your chances are of getting rich. However, doing all categories half-assed will get you nowhere. Wealth and fortune are created because it takes skill, work, and determination. My advice to you would be to fully master one category, that will be challenging enough for most people.

For the people who really have the commitment, choose two or three categories to master. If you find yourself doing more than that, you have to ask yourself "have I really gone as far as I can in my first categories?" Unless you've been working at them for years, I can say with certainty that you have not.

Also, be careful with the Frugality category. Tendency here would be to say "yeah I'm already cheap" and move on. However, there's an art and science to everything. The Cheapest Woman in the World appeared on Opera and said she was able to purchase two homes and 20ft boat just from her frugal ways. Still think you're cheap enough?

Good luck and I'd love to hear your success stories. You can send them to TruWealth1@gmail.com. If your story is interesting, I'll write a post on it as inspiration for others.